Iowa Caucus Tonight

Here we go again. Four years ago it was Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and John McCain. Well, this time around there are six on the Republican side and just one on the Democrat side. This much we know right now; Barack Obama will be the Democrat's nominee for the 2012 Presidential Election.

(There is also a Democratic Caucus tonight, but it will go uncontested. Hopefully Obama will win 100% of the vote)

The rest is not so clear. Mitt Romney is the presumptive favorite, Rick Santorum had become popular of late, and Ron Paul has his usual intensive support. Then there are Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry, both had their moments and have huge amounts of money. Even if they start off slow, they can hold on and stay in it for a couple of weeks. That leaves Michelle Bachman, who in all likelihood will end her campaign tonight. It has been a fun ride with her, but she doesn't have the votes, or the money, to justify a continuation of this campaign.

The most recent polling shows a close race between Santorum, Romney, and Paul. Here is the Real Clear Politics data, which has been reposted here. They have a great amount of information over on their website and encourage all of you to visit.

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Romney	Paul	Santorum	Gingrich	Perry	Bachmann	Huntsman	Cain	Spread
RCP Average	12/21 - 1/1	--	22.8	21.5	16.3	13.7	11.5	6.8	2.3	--	Romney +1.3
Insider Advantage	1/1 - 1/1	729 LV	23	22	18	16	10	6	2	--	Romney +1
PPP (D)	12/31 - 1/1	1340 LV	19	20	18	14	10	8	4	--	Paul +1
Des Moines Register	12/27 - 12/30	602 LV	24	22	15	12	11	7	2	--	Romney +2
Rasmussen Reports	12/28 - 12/28	750 LV	23	22	16	13	13	5	3	--	Romney +1
NBC News/Marist	12/27 - 12/28	425 LV	23	21	15	13	14	6	2	--	Romney +2
CNN/Time	12/21 - 12/27	452 LV	25	22	16	14	11	9	1	--	Romney +3

But there are a few other ways to help predict the election outcomes besides for simply polling data. Nate Silver has designed a computer prediction model and he has Romney pulling away tonight with a 42% chance of winning.

Iowa Caucus Projections

CANDIDATE

PROJECTED VOTE RANGE

CHANCE OF WINNING

Mitt Romney

21.8%

Vote range →

12

32

42%

Ron Paul

21.0%

11

31

34%

Rick Santorum

19.3%

10

29

20%

Newt Gingrich

15.1%

7

24

3%

Rick Perry

10.4%

4

18

0%

Michele Bachmann

7.9%

2

15

0%

Jon Huntsman

3.8%

0

8

Finally there are the Intrade Markets which give:

Romney a 50% chance,

Paul 30%,

Santorum 20%

Gingrich 0.5%

Perry 0.2%

Bachman 0.1%

Huntsman 0.1%

I was looking to post the data from oddsmakers in Vegas but I can't find them anymore. I will definitely post the lines for New Hampshire though.

Anyways, there is all the information I can think of. I'll just post my predictions for your entertainment. (And mine)

ZNN's Predicted final standings

Ron Paul 23%

Mitt Romney 20%

Rick Santorum 19%

Newt Gingrich 17%

Rick Perry 14%

Michelle Bachman 7%

Best of Luck to all the candidates.

If you have questions or comments, please post or email me at countzacky@yahoo.com. Don't forget to bookmark us by clicking Ctrl-D on your keyboard.

Posted in: 2012 Election